All posts in Future of work

  • Information overload: Is there a breaking point?

    • The common view (that I’ve written about before) is that we’re reaching an information overload breaking point
    • But it turns out that humans have been complaining consistently about information overload since at least the 15th century
    • Information overload is very real at an individual level, but each generation deals better than the past. So good individual coping strategies are more important than system wide responses

    Two men on Northwest Airlines aircraft, one using typewriter, with female flight attendant in background

    The common view is that we’re about to hit breaking point for executive information overload

    I talk about information overload a lot with Australian executives. I’ve never had a high level exec tell me that they’re not suffering from information/email overload.

    I know that if I want to get a group of executives nodding along all I need to do is show this chart from Boston Consulting Group:
    BCG complexity index

    It always gets us onto talking about how the current rate of  growth in complexity and information just can’t continue.

    The conversation typically goes something like this:

    • “Look at the growth in complexity, it’s exponential!”
    • “That’s what it feels like trying to keep up with emails on a day-to-day basis”
    • “Growth in complexity just can’t continue at this rate. It’s just not possible”
    • “Humans aren’t like computers that obey Moore’s law. We can’t just upgrade – we’ve got basically fixed cognitive capacity”
    • “Something has to change dramatically soon, because we’re about to hit a breaking point”

    Read more

  • Are you ready for employee activism?

    I’ve been doing a lot of thinking recently on key near term trends in the future of work (I’ll post the full deck here on Management Disrupted soon).

    As part of this, one of the really interesting trends that I think we’ll start to experience very soon is the rise of “employee activism”.

    Social media has fundamentally changed all activism

    Social technology dramatically changed political activism. As the Arab Spring showed, when citizens see something they don’t like, there’s more connectivity than ever before to rise up and organise around an alternative. People have always been able to protest. But they’ve never been so connected, so co-ordinated, and so effective.


    There’s plenty of examples here. On a smaller scale, has made it easy to organise compelling petitions with 50k+ signatures, forcing politicians and businesses to respond quickly.

    Probably the closest we’ve got to an enterprise version of at present is Glassdoor. However it’s pretty low level and focused on the hiring process. That said I still know more than one Australian Chairman who actively monitors Glassdoor for a feel of what’s really going on in the workforce (as opposed to what’s being fed up through the chain of command).

    What is employee activism?

    I’m seeing employee activism as the ability for employees to make a very public stand about the direction and strategy of the company. Think of employee activism as a new and aggressive version of investor activism. The aim isn’t better wages, it’s better strategy.

    It’s a higher level protest where knowledge workers are saying “we think this CEO is wrecking the company and needs to go”. The audience is partially other employees, but it’s also a direct appeal to investors and the board.

    There’s no reason that this can’t happen on current social media and enterprise social networks. But I think there’s also potential for some anonymisation to really drive growth. Think about a equivalent where any employee can start an anonymous petition to the Chairman. And all the signatures will be made public if the petition reaches 1000 verified employees.

    Why employee activism now?

    The enterprise adoption loop we’re seeing at the moment is it takes about 5 years after the mainstream rise of a consumer technology for the effects to fully hit the workplace. This isn’t a hard and fast rule, but it’s generally pretty accurate in the gap between mainstream consumer and enterprise adoption. Have a think about how long it took your company to move to smartphones. It was probably 4-6 years after you first had a smartphone for personal use. Or think about the gap between when you were using Facebook (founded 2002) and Yammer or equivalent (founded 2008).

    Given the five year enterprise adoption cycle, enterprise social is effectively at the same place that consumer social was at in 2010. For some comparison on how the five year cycle translates here, the Arab Spring exploded across Facebook and Twitter in December 2010.

    I’d caveat here that like in the case of political activism, connectivity isn’t the cause of employee activism. But it is a big enabler.  Connectivity is such a game changer in the enterprise setting because it’s easy to censor one dissenting employee. But it’s very hard to fire 100, or 1000 dissenting mid>upper level employees without having a major effect on the company.

    Social and collaborative technology in the workforce has huge benefits. It empowers employees to work together and connect like never before. It’s just that in extreme cases some of that work may be coming together to change the direction of the company.

    Censorship will lead to disaster (but will probably be the first response)

    It’s interesting (and important) for management teams to think about is how you deal with employee activism. For many organisations, the first reaction might be censorship. But the connectivity of the workforce across every social network means that censorship is likely to only make the campaign stronger.

    From an executive/board perspective, the answer is almost certainly engagement and pre-emption. But that’s not necessarily a toolkit that the executive and board have ready today. Businesses aren’t a democracy. But they’re about to get a whole lot more like one.

    Expect to see a CEO toppled by their own employees, very socially, very soon

    Maybe the tipping point comes in 2015, maybe it’s 2016. But expect to see a CEO toppled by their own employees, very socially, very soon. And once it happens once, it’s going to show millions of employees worldwide just how powerful they can be when they stand together.

  • The future of work in 29 powerful charts

    Below are 29 powerful charts that I saw over 2014. I think these hold the keys to what we’re going to see the work look like over the next 10-15 years. There’s some genuinely fascinating stuff here that’s been dug out from a range of sources (some common, some less so). I hope you find these as interesting and powerful as I do. All the sources are linked, in the case you’re looking for some deeper beach reading.

    I’d also like to wish everyone on the Management Disrupted mailing list a Merry Christmas! I look forward to continuing the conversation in 2015.

    1. The environment is getting significantly more complex

    BCG complexity index

    Source: BCG

    2. Organisational complexity: We’re just getting started

    Complexity 2

    Source: EIU

    3. Where are the biggest complexity issues?

    Net future increase in complexity

    Source: KPMG

    4. Where is the complexity coming from?

    The causes of complexity

    Source: KPMG

    5. Organisational complexity: Yes, things are getting faster

    Consumption spreads faster

    Source: New York Times

    6. Organisational complexity: Yes, things are getting faster

    Technology adoption rates

    Source: MIT Technology Review

    7. The “new normal” is being driven by technology, not just economics

    Technological uncertainty

    Source: HBR

    8. How are companies dealing with complexity? With more complexity! (CEO span of control)

    Functional managers

    Source: Harvard Business School

    9. How are companies dealing with complexity? With more complexity! (Management as a percentage of all employment)


    Source: Allied Social Science Associations

    10. Management evolution: The decline of the COO

    COO prevalence

    Source: CFO Magazine

    11. Organisational structures grow to match the source of value creation: See the rise of the CFO

    Prevalence of the CFO

    Source: American Sociological Review

    12. Value creation today is all about the people: Intangible assets now represent c.85% of the balance sheet

    The source of corporate value creation

    Source: Deloitte University Press

    13. Hype versus reality: Where is the real technological disruption coming from?

    Hype Cycle 2014

    Source: Gartner

    14. Hype vs reality: The automation of knowledge work is perhaps the biggest trend you’re not hearing about

    Hype vs economics

    Source: McKinsey Global Institute

    15. The economic impact of technological disruption

    Potential economic impact

    Source: McKinsey Global Institute

    16. Technological disruption is just getting started: Technology and job losses


    Source: EIU

    17. The automation of the worker is very real

    Automation is real

    Source: McKinsey Global Institute

    18. The rise and rise of knowledge work

    Growth of knowledge work

    Source: The Work Foundation

    19. The rise and rise of knowledge work: There is still significant services growth to come

    Employment in services

    Source: EIU

    20. The rise and rise of knowledge work: It’s not as easy to standardise returns in knowledge work

    Performance variability

    Source: McKinsey Global Institute

    21. At the intersection of complexity and the rise of knowledge work, we see companies have a shorter lifespan than ever before

    Competitveness over time

    Source: McKinsey

    22A. The changing organisation: Technological disruption and complexity means bigger organisations with less employees

    Companies - Past


    Source: Company releases (mid 2014)

    22B. The changing organisation: Technological disruption and complexity means bigger organisations with less employees

    Companies - Present


    Source: Company releases (mid 2014)

    22c. The changing organisation: Technological disruption and complexity means bigger organisations with less employees

    Companies - Future

    Source: Company releases (mid 2014)

    23. Organisational complexity: The status quo isn’t sustainable


    Source: EIU

    24. Organisational complexity: How are organisations responding?

    Complexity 4

    Source: EIU

    25. Great design is no longer optional (and is a response to shortcut complexity)

    Design thinking

    Source: Google Trends

    26. In the face of complexity, we seek familiarity

    Regular employee credibility

    Source: Edelman

    27. Leadership authenticity is the only choice (There’s no time to craft credible narratives)

    The social CEO

    Source: Weber Shadwick

    28. Surprising workforce data: Employee tenure is actually rising


    Source: EBRI

    29. Surprising workforce data: Departing CEO age and tenure is largely unchanged

    CEO age and tenure

    Source: The Conference Board